import type { AgentSuggestion } from "@/app/home/components/agent-suggestions-list";
import { IconGroupPng, MessageGroupPng, TrendPng } from "@/assets/png";
import { AutoTrade, NewsPush, ResearchReport } from "@/assets/svg";
import SvgIcon from "@/components/valuecell/svg-icon";

export const agentSuggestions: AgentSuggestion[] = [
  {
    id: "ResearchAgent",
    title: "Deep Research",
    icon: <SvgIcon name={ResearchReport} />,
    description:
      "Analyze SEC filings to generate in-depth stock interpretation reports.",
    bgColor:
      "bg-gradient-to-r from-[#FFFFFF]/70 from-[5.05%] to-[#E7EFFF]/70 to-[100%]",
    decorativeGraphics: <img src={IconGroupPng} alt="IconGroup" />,
  },
  {
    id: "AutoTradingAgent",
    title: "Auto Trading",
    icon: <SvgIcon name={AutoTrade} />,
    description: "Multiple crypto assets and AI-powered trading strategies",
    bgColor:
      "bg-gradient-to-r from-[#FFFFFF]/70 from-[5.05%] to-[#EAE8FF]/70 to-[100%]",
    decorativeGraphics: <img src={TrendPng} alt="Trend" />,
  },
  {
    id: "NewsAgent",
    title: "Pushing News",
    icon: <SvgIcon name={NewsPush} />,
    description: "Personalized news updates on a custom schedule",
    bgColor:
      "bg-gradient-to-r from-[#FFFFFF]/70 from-[5.05%] to-[#FFE7FD]/70 to-[100%]",
    decorativeGraphics: <img src={MessageGroupPng} alt="MessageGroup" />,
  },
];

/**
 * Mock data Only for testing
 */
export const mockAgentData = {
  TradingAgents_conv_default_user: {
    threads: {
      "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1": {
        tasks: {
          "ask-304a5d5862eb4a44a98f8f9c7ae52158": {
            items: [
              {
                component_type: "markdown",
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "ask-304a5d5862eb4a44a98f8f9c7ae52158",
                payload: {
                  content: "Help me analyze AAPL",
                },
                role: "user",
                item_id: "item-8defc8fd0c0b4b2492abc032df8b5e4e",
              },
            ],
          },
          "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074": {
            items: [
              {
                component_type: "markdown",
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content:
                    "🔧 **Configuration information**\n- Stock code: AAPL\n- Analysis date: 2025-10-13\n- Selected analysts: market, social, news, fundamentals\n- LLM provider: openrouter\n- Deep thinking model: openai/gpt-oss-120b\n- Quick thinking model: openai/gpt-oss-120b\n- Debug mode: No\n\n🚀 **Starting to initialize trading analysis system...**\n✅ **System initialized, starting analysis...**\n\n📈 **Market analysis report**\n",
                },
                role: "agent",
                item_id: "item-07ae277e22014fe9928762d3301c9b31",
              },
              {
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content:
                    '{"title":"Market Analysis Report","data":"**AAPL – Technical Outlook (as of 2025‑10‑13)**  \\n\\nBelow is a deep‑dive into the most informative, non‑redundant indicators for Apple Inc. (AAPL). The eight selected tools span trend, momentum, and volatility, giving a balanced picture of where the stock sits in the medium‑term up‑trend while it experiences a short‑term pull‑back.\\n\\n| # | Indicator | Current value (10 Oct 2025) | What it tells us | Why it’s useful in today’s context |\\n|---|-----------|----------------------------|------------------|-----------------------------------|\\n| 1 | **close_50_sma** (50‑day Simple Moving Average) | **236.99** | Price (245.27) is **~3.5 % above** the 50‑SMA → medium‑term bullish bias. | The 50‑SMA smooths out the recent rally (April 2025 – Oct 2025) and acts as dynamic support. A price stay‑above it confirms the up‑trend is intact. |\\n| 2 | **close_200_sma** (200‑day SMA) | **221.88** | Price is **~10 % above** the long‑term trend line → strong strategic bullish backdrop. | The 200‑SMA changes slowly; staying well above it signals that the overall market sentiment on AAPL remains positive, reducing the risk of a major regime shift. |\\n| 3 | **close_10_ema** (10‑day Exponential Moving Average) | **253.20** | Price is **~3 % below** the 10‑EMA → short‑term downside pressure. The 10‑EMA itself has been **tilting down** (255.16 → 253.20) over the last 5 days. | The 10‑EMA reacts quickly to price moves. A cross‑under (price < EMA) often precedes a brief corrective phase, giving a timing cue for tighter entries or stop‑loss placement. |\\n| 4 | **MACD** (12‑EMA – 26‑EMA) | **5.12** (positive and rising) | Momentum is still **bullish**; the MACD line sits well above its signal line (not shown) and has been climbing from ~4.6 a month ago. | MACD confirms that despite the short‑term pull‑back, the underlying momentum remains positive, supporting a “buy‑the‑dip” view rather than a full‑blowout. |\\n| 5 | **RSI (14‑day)** | **47.2** | Near the neutral 50 mark, slightly **below** the 50‑level → modest bearish pressure, but **far from oversold (<30)**. | RSI helps gauge whether the dip is over‑extended. A reading in the high‑40s suggests the pull‑back may be exhausted, especially when paired with a still‑positive MACD. |\\n| 6 | **Bollinger Middle (20‑day SMA)** | **251.13** | Price sits **~6 % below** the band’s centre, inside the lower third of the channel. | The middle band is a dynamic benchmark; price below it signals a short‑term weakness that could attract mean‑reversion buying. |\\n| 7 | **Bollinger Upper Band** | **266.31** | Well above current price, indicating **no immediate over‑bought pressure**. | The distance to the upper band shows ample headroom for upside before a potential breakout, reinforcing the bullish long‑term view. |\\n| 8 | **Bollinger Lower Band** | **235.94** | Price is **~4 % above** the lower band, comfortably inside the channel. | Being above the lower band reduces the risk of a sharp reversal; a breach would be a clear warning sign, so the current cushion is a safety buffer. |\\n\\n### Narrative Analysis  \\n\\n1. **Trend Layer (200 SMA + 50 SMA)**  \\n   - The 200‑day SMA sits at 221.9, a level that has acted as strong support since early 2024. AAPL has been trading **~10 % above** this line for the past six months, confirming a **long‑term up‑trend**.  \\n   - The 50‑day SMA, at 237.0, is also rising steadily (233.5 → 236.9 over the last month). The price’s position **well above** both averages signals that the medium‑term trend is intact.\\n\\n2. **Short‑Term Momentum (10‑EMA + MACD + RSI)**  \\n   - The 10‑EMA (253.2) is **higher than the current price**, and the EMA itself is sloping down, indicating a **short‑term corrective wave**.  \\n   - MACD remains **positive and increasing** (5.1), showing that the **underlying bullish momentum** is still robust despite the price dip.  \\n   - RSI at 47.2 is **neutral‑to‑slightly bearish**, but not in oversold territory, suggesting the pull‑back may be nearing its floor.\\n\\n3. **Volatility & Mean‑Reversion (Bollinger Bands)**  \\n   - The Bollinger middle band (251.1) is above price, while the lower band (235.9) sits **~9 points below** the close. The price is **inside the lower third** of the channel, a classic mean‑reversion setup: price often rebounds toward the middle band after hovering near the lower edge.  \\n   - The wide gap to the upper band (266.3) leaves **ample upside potential** before any over‑bought condition emerges.\\n\\n4. **Risk Outlook**  \\n   - **Bullish Bias:** Long‑term trend, price above 200‑SMA, MACD positive, ample distance to upper Bollinger band.  \\n   - **Caution Flags:** Price below 10‑EMA, RSI slipping toward 45‑50, and a modest decline in the 10‑EMA itself. These suggest a **controlled pull‑back** rather than a trend reversal.  \\n   - **Key Levels to Watch:**  \\n     * **Support:** 10‑EMA (≈ 253) – a break below could accelerate the dip.  \\n     * **Intermediate Support:** 50‑SMA (≈ 237) – a strong floor if the pull‑back deepens.  \\n     * **Resistance:** Bollinger middle (≈ 251) and 10‑EMA (≈ 253) – crossing above these would confirm the resumption of the up‑trend.  \\n\\n### Take‑away for Traders  \\n\\n- **Swing‑traders** may look for **long‑biased entries near the 50‑SMA or the lower Bollinger band** (≈ 240‑245) with a stop just below the 10‑EMA (≈ 252) to capture a bounce toward the middle band.  \\n- **Position‑sizers** can use the **ATR (not shown) or the distance to the lower Bollinger band** to size risk; the current volatility is moderate, allowing tighter stops.  \\n- **Trend‑followers** should stay on the sidelines until the price **re‑claims the 10‑EMA** or **breaks above the Bollinger middle**, at which point a **buy‑the‑dip** signal aligns with the longer‑term bullish framework.  \\n\\n---  \\n\\n**Summary:** AAPL remains in a **strong long‑term up‑trend** (price > 200‑SMA, 50‑SMA) while experiencing a **short‑term corrective phase** (price < 10‑EMA, RSI near 47). Positive MACD momentum and a comfortable cushion above the Bollinger lower band suggest the pull‑back is likely to **reverse toward the middle band**. Traders can consider opportunistic long entries on a bounce, but should protect against a deeper decline by watching the 10‑EMA and 50‑SMA as key support thresholds.","url":null,"create_time":"2025-10-13 08:27:58"}',
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                role: "agent",
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              {
                component_type: "markdown",
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content: "😊 **Sentiment analysis report**\n",
                },
                role: "agent",
                item_id: "item-e1a67d5f58914dd8907376ad784cd6bb",
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              {
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
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                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content:
                    '{"title":"Sentiment Analysis Report","data":"**Comprehensive Market‑Sentiment & News Analysis – Apple Inc. (AAPL) – Week of Oct 7‑13 2025**\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 1️⃣ Executive Summary\\nApple’s stock continued to trade in a **tight range** (≈ $178 – $184) during the week of **7‑13 Oct 2025**. The market’s mood was **mixed‑to‑slightly‑positive**, driven by three converging story‑lines:\\n\\n| Narrative | Core Drivers | Net Sentiment |\\n|-----------|--------------|---------------|\\n| **iPhone 17 launch & early‑sale performance** | Strong pre‑order numbers, modest supply‑chain constraints in Southeast Asia, new “Titanium‑Pro” chassis, price‑point at $1199 (premium). | **Positive** – +0.32 |\\n| **Apple Vision Pro 2.0 rollout** | Second‑generation AR headset with lighter form‑factor, $1 800 price, early‑adopter uptake < 5 k units/day, mixed reviews on battery life. | **Mixed** – –0.05 |\\n| **Services & AI‑driven ecosystem** | Q3 2025 earnings beat on Services (+ 15 % YoY) and AI‑assistant “Apple Siri Pro” integration; ad‑supported “Apple News+” tier added. | **Positive** – +0.28 |\\n\\nOverall, the net daily sentiment index (scaled –1 = very negative, +1 = very positive) averaged **+0.18** for the week, with peaks on **Oct 9** (iPhone 17 pre‑order hype) and **Oct 12** (Services earnings beat).\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 2️⃣ Social‑Media Pulse (Reddit & Twitter)\\n\\n| Day | Dominant Themes | Top‑Performing Posts* | Sentiment Score |\\n|-----|------------------|-----------------------|-----------------|\\n| **Oct 7** | “iPhone 17 rumors, battery, camera upgrades” | r/Apple – “Rumor mill confirms 48 MP sensor – is this the end for 4K video?” (↑12 k upvotes) | **+0.21** |\\n| **Oct 8** | Supply‑chain chatter – “Vietnam chip fab delay” | r/Investing – “Apple’s A‑chip yield down 3 % – will margins suffer?” (↑9 k upvotes) | **–0.12** |\\n| **Oct 9** | Pre‑order surge, “Black Friday early” | r/Apple – “iPhone 17 pre‑order hit 2 M in 24 h – record! 🎉” (↑22 k upvotes) | **+0.38** |\\n| **Oct 10** | Apple Vision Pro 2.0 leak, price concerns | r/Apple – “Is $1.8k for AR headset just too high? 🙈” (↑15 k comments) | **–0.08** |\\n| **Oct 11** | Services growth, AI assistant demo | r/Apple – “Siri Pro actually *listens* – demo video goes viral” (↑18 k upvotes) | **+0.30** |\\n| **Oct 12** | Q3 earnings release (beat on Services) | r/Stocks – “Apple beats on Services, guidance strong – target $190” (↑25 k upvotes) | **+0.45** |\\n| **Oct 13** | Weekend “Tech‑talk” podcasts recap | r/Apple – “Apple’s biggest risk? Over‑reliance on hardware margins” (↑10 k comments) | **–0.03** |\\n\\n\\\\* Only representative high‑visibility posts are shown; the full dataset (≈ 2 500 Reddit posts & 4 800 Tweets) was scanned using keyword‑frequency & sentiment‑analysis models (VADER + FinBERT).  \\n\\n**Key take‑aways**\\n\\n* **Pre‑order hype** produced the strongest positive swing, reinforcing the iPhone 17’s demand‑side momentum.\\n* **Supply‑chain bottlenecks** in Vietnam and Taiwan (chip fab downtime) generated short‑term bearish chatter, but the impact was muted by Apple’s diversified supplier base.\\n* **Apple Vision Pro 2.0** attracted skeptical sentiment due to price, but early adopters praised the ergonomics, leading to a net neutral sentiment.\\n* **Services & AI** consistently trended positive; users praised the *Siri Pro* demo and the new ad‑supported News+ tier, indicating a growing appetite for subscription‑plus‑ads business model.\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 3️⃣ News & Corporate Developments (Oct 7‑13 2025)\\n\\n| Date | Headline | Source | Impact Assessment |\\n|------|----------|--------|-------------------|\\n| **Oct 7** | *Apple announces iPhone 17 “Titanium‑Pro” edition, 48 MP sensor, 5‑nm A‑chip* | Apple Press Release | **Positive** – Premium‑segment pricing may boost ARPU. |\\n| **Oct 8** | *Supply‑chain alert: Vietnam’s Samsung‑partner fab experiences 3‑day outage* | Bloomberg | **Negative** – Potential short‑term inventory squeeze. |\\n| **Oct 9** | *iPhone 17 pre‑orders exceed 2 M in first 24 h* | Reuters | **Positive** – Early sales beat analysts’ 1.4 M estimate. |\\n| **Oct 10** | *Apple Vision Pro 2.0 unveiled; lighter frame, 30 % longer battery* | The Verge | **Mixed** – Hardware praised, price criticism persists. |\\n| **Oct 11** | *Apple launches “Siri Pro” AI assistant, now powered by on‑device LLM* | The Wall Street Journal | **Positive** – Differentiates from cloud‑only rivals. |\\n| **Oct 12** | *Q3 2025 earnings: Revenue $94.2 B (+ 4 % YoY); Services $22.5 B (+ 15 % YoY); EPS $1.28* | Apple Earnings Call | **Positive** – Guidance raised to $190 target price. |\\n| **Oct 13** | *SEC probes Apple’s “App Store” fee‑structure after EU antitrust ruling* | Financial Times | **Negative** – Potential fine of €2–3 B; long‑term margin risk. |\\n\\n**Overall News Sentiment** – Calculated using a weighted average (news weight × sentiment polarity). The week’s net news sentiment was **+0.27**, indicating that earnings beat and product demand outperformed the regulatory headwinds.\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 4️⃣ Quantitative Sentiment & Price Correlation\\n\\n| Metric | Value |\\n|--------|-------|\\n| **Average Daily Sentiment Index** | +0.18 (range –0.12 → +0.45) |\\n| **Closing Price on Oct 7** | $178.25 |\\n| **Closing Price on Oct 13** | $182.11 |\\n| **Price‑vs‑Sentiment Correlation (r)** | **0.62** (moderately strong) |\\n| **Volatility (10‑day ATR)** | $2.9 |\\n| **Implied Volatility (30‑day OTM)** | 22 % (down 1 % YoY) |\\n| **Put/Call Ratio** | 0.68 (bearish bias easing) |\\n\\n*Interpretation*: The positive sentiment swing on Oct 9‑12 translated into a **3.2 % price gain** over the week, confirming the sentiment‑price linkage.\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 5️⃣ Strategic Implications for Traders & Investors  \\n\\n| Consideration | Rationale | Suggested Action |\\n|---------------|-----------|------------------|\\n| **iPhone 17 demand remains robust** | Pre‑order numbers > 30 % above consensus; premium pricing improves gross margin. | **Long‑side**: Accumulate on dips; target 6‑month upside to $210 if supply constraints resolve. |\\n| **Supply‑chain hiccup in Vietnam** | Short‑term inventory pressure could compress margin in Q4 2025, but Apple’s diversified fab network buffers the risk. | **Neutral**: Monitor component‑inventory data (e.g., Tier 1 supplier shipments). |\\n| **Vision Pro 2.0 adoption lag** | Early sales modest; price sensitivity high; long‑term AR/VR ecosystem still nascent. | **Short‑term**: Remain cautious; avoid new‑issue exposure; consider hedge via tech‑ETF if exposure is high. |\\n| **Services & AI ecosystem acceleration** | Services revenue +15 % YoY; AI‑assistant “Siri Pro” differentiates Apple from cloud‑only rivals; ad‑supported tier diversifies monetisation. | **Bullish**: Upgrade Services exposure (e.g., AAPL Services‑focused derivatives) – upside potential if AI adoption scales. |\\n| **Regulatory risk (EU antitrust)** | Potential €2‑3 B fine could affect operating margin; timeline uncertain (2026‑27). | **Risk‑manage**: Keep a modest stop‑loss (~5 % below current price); consider partial profit‑taking on any near‑term rally. |\\n| **Technical – chart pattern** | Stock trading in a narrow “ascending channel” (support $176, resistance $185). Break above $185 could trigger breakout rally. | **Trade**: Set entry order at $185 with stop‑loss $182; upside target $200 (≈ 15 % gain). |\\n\\n---\\n\\n### 6️⃣ Outlook – 3‑Month Forecast (Oct 2025 – Jan 2026)\\n\\n| Factor | Forecast | Impact on AAPL |\\n|--------|----------|----------------|\\n| **iPhone 17 Q4 shipments** | 5 % YoY growth | Positive – core revenue lift. |\\n| **Vision Pro 2.0 Q4 sales** | 6 % YoY growth (still low base) | Slightly positive, but limited upside. |\\n| **Services revenue** | 12–14 % YoY (continued AI upsell) | Strongly positive – higher margin contribution. |\\n| **Regulatory outcome** | Fine likely announced Q1 2026 | Short‑term neutral (price already discounted). |\\n| **Macro environment** | US Fed expected to hold rates; consumer confidence stable | Overall market‑neutral, supportive for “defensive” tech stocks. |\\n\\n**Projected price target (12 weeks)**: **$195 ± $7** (≈ 7 % upside from current levels).  \\n\\n---\\n\\n## 📊 Summary Table – Key Points for Traders\\n\\n| Category | Main Points | Sentiment | Investor Action |\\n|----------|-------------|-----------|-----------------|\\n| **Product** | iPhone 17 “Titanium‑Pro” drives premium demand; pre‑orders +30 % vs consensus. | **+0.32** | **Buy / add** on pullbacks. |\\n| **Supply Chain** | Vietnam fab outage (3 days) – minor inventory strain. | **–0.12** | **Neutral** – watch supplier intel. |\\n| **AR/VR** | Vision Pro 2.0 launch, price $1,800, mixed reviews. | **–0.05** | **Caution** – avoid new‑issue exposure. |\\n| **Services** | Q3 beat, Services +15 % YoY, AI “Siri Pro” debut. | **+0.28** | **Bullish** – increase exposure to Services segment. |\\n| **Regulatory** | EU antitrust probe, potential €2‑3 B fine. | **–0.10** | **Risk‑manage** – set modest stop‑loss. |\\n| **Technical** | Trading in ascending channel; resistance $185. | **+0.18** (overall) | **Trade**: Buy break‑out above $185 with $182 stop. |\\n| **Overall** | Net weekly sentiment +0.18; price +3.2 % on week. | **Positive** | **Long‑biased** with hedge for regulatory risk. |\\n\\n--- \\n\\n### Closing Note\\nApple remains a **high‑quality, cash‑rich technology leader**. The convergence of strong hardware demand (iPhone 17), accelerating Services/AI revenue, and a relatively benign technical backdrop outweighs the short‑term supply‑chain hiccups and regulatory uncertainty. Traders with a **medium‑term horizon (3‑6 months)** may consider **adding to positions at current levels**, while keeping **protective stops** to guard against any unexpected regulatory penalties.\\n\\n--- \\n\\n*All sentiment scores are derived from proprietary natural‑language models (VADER for broad polarity, FinBERT for finance‑specific nuance) applied to ≈ 7 500 social‑media posts (Reddit, Twitter) and 12 news articles over the week. The analysis reflects data up to **13 Oct 2025**.*","url":null,"create_time":"2025-10-13 08:27:58"}',
                  component_type: "report",
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                component_type: "report",
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              {
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                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content: "📊 **Fundamentals analysis report**\n",
                },
                role: "agent",
                item_id: "item-ab30adf433f24517a08dfc3540573477",
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              {
                conversation_id: "TradingAgents_conv_default_user",
                thread_id: "th-8110fb9155394ca699faf792fd2009d1",
                task_id: "task-b328a9abb1da4ca49e0f692ed13cb074",
                payload: {
                  content:
                    '{"title":"Fundamentals Analysis Report","data":"**Status:** I was unable to retrieve the requested up‑to‑date fundamental information for Apple Inc. (AAPL) via the `get_fundamentals_openai` tool. The tool returned an internal error (`AttributeError: \'str\' object has no attribute \'output\'`), indicating that the call could not be fulfilled at this time.\\n\\n**Next steps / Recommendations**\\n\\n| Action | Reason |\\n|--------|--------|\\n| **Retry the API call** after a short pause or with a different request format (if supported) | The error appears to be a technical issue with the tool, not with the request parameters. |\\n| **Use an alternative data source** (e.g., Bloomberg, Refinitiv, company filings on SEC’s EDGAR, or a market data provider) | To obtain the latest 10‑K, 10‑Q, earnings releases, insider transaction reports, and sentiment data for the past week. |\\n| **If time‑critical, work with historical data** (latest available filing and recent news up to the most recent public date) | Provides a baseline analysis while awaiting fresh data. |\\n| **Contact the system administrator** if the tool continues to fail | The repeated `AttributeError` suggests a bug in the integration that needs developer attention. |\\n\\nOnce the tool is functional again, I can provide a detailed, fine‑grained fundamental report covering:\\n\\n* Company profile & business overview  \\n* Recent financial statements (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow) and key ratios  \\n* Quarterly earnings trends and guidance updates from the past week  \\n* Insider sentiment and recent insider trading activity (Form 4 filings)  \\n* Major institutional ownership changes and analyst rating shifts  \\n* Any material news events (e.g., product launches, regulatory filings) that could impact valuation  \\n\\nFeel free to let me know if you would like me to proceed with the analysis using the most recent publicly available data in the meantime, or if you have an alternative method for obtaining the latest fundamentals.","url":null,"create_time":"2025-10-13 08:27:58"}',
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                  content:
                    "💼 **Trader investment plan**\n**AAPL – Decision Framework**\n\n| Factor | Current Reading | Interpretation |\n|--------|----------------|----------------|\n| **Technical Trend** | • 50‑day SMA crossing above 200‑day SMA (golden cross) <br>• RSI hovering around 55, indicating modest upward momentum without being over‑bought <br>• Recent price action: +4 % over the last 2 weeks, breaking above recent resistance at $178 | Momentum is positive and the chart pattern suggests a continued uptrend. |\n| **Macro‑Economic Environment** | • Q2 earnings beat expectations (EPS $1.30 vs. $1.22 consensus) <br>• U.S. consumer confidence stable, tech sector still benefiting from low‑interest‑rate environment <br>• No major geopolitical shocks affecting supply chains | Fundamentals remain supportive, though a possible interest‑rate hike later in the year could temper growth. |\n| **Social‑Media Sentiment** | • Sentiment score from major platforms ~+0.68 (bullish) <br>• Trending topics: “iPhone 15 launch”, “services growth”, “AI integration” <br>• Low level of negative chatter, with most concerns centered on supply‑chain logistics (already mitigated) | Market participants are broadly optimistic about both product pipeline and services revenue. |\n| **Valuation** | • Forward P/E ~23× (slightly above market average but justified by strong services growth) <br>• Dividend yield ~0.5 % – modest but consistent | Valuation is reasonable given growth prospects; not overly stretched. |\n| **Risk Considerations** | • Potential volatility from upcoming earnings guidance revision <br>• Exposure to global chip shortages – however, Apple’s diversified supply base reduces this risk | Risks are manageable and largely priced in. |\n\n**Synthesis**\n\nAll three pillars—technical momentum, solid macro fundamentals, and positive sentiment—align toward a bullish outlook for AAPL. The technical indicators point to a sustained uptrend, earnings have exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment remains upbeat. While macro‑risk (interest‑rate outlook) and supply‑chain concerns exist, they are not enough to outweigh the positive drivers.\n\n**Recommendation**\n\nGiven the current environment, a **buy** position is warranted for investors seeking exposure to Apple’s continued growth, especially in services and AI‑driven product enhancements. A modest allocation (e.g., 5‑10 % of portfolio) aligns with a balanced risk‑return profile.\n\n**FINAL TRANSACTION PROPOSAL: **BUY**\n\n⚠️ **Risk management assessment**\n**Recommendation – **_**HOLD (with a conditional entry plan)**_  \n\n---\n\n## 1. What the trader originally wanted to do  \n*(the trader’s stated plan is hidden as “****” in the prompt – we’ll assume the intention was to **add a new long position in Apple (AAPL) now**).*\n\n### Our revised plan  \n‑ Don’t take the position **today**.  \n‑ Enter only after the price clears the short‑term technical barrier (10‑day EMA ≈ $253) and stays above the Bollinger‑band middle (~$251) for at least two consecutive sessions.  \n‑ When that trigger is hit, allocate **5‑7 % of the overall portfolio** (or the equivalent of a single “core‑risk” bucket) and apply the risk‑controls outlined below.\n\n---\n\n## 2. Key arguments from the three analysts  \n\n| Analyst | Strongest Point (relevant to the decision) | Why it matters |\n|--------|--------------------------------------------|----------------|\n| **Risky** | Multi‑month up‑trend (price > 50‑day SMA, 200‑day SMA 10 % below) + bullish sentiment spikes → “buy‑the‑dip” | Shows the **long‑term bias** is bullish, but it bases the entry on today’s price, ignoring the **near‑term EMA breach**. |\n| **Safe** | Price is still **below the 10‑day EMA**, EMA is sloping down, and we sit in the lower third of the Bollinger channel → a **potential short‑term corrective wave** | Signals that a **stop‑loss‑sized pull‑back is likely** if we jump in now; capital preservation becomes the priority. |\n| **Neutral** | Trend is bullish **iff** the 10‑EMA is reclaimed; sentiment spikes are real but fragile; services/AI upside is **moderately priced**, not “free money.” | Provides the **middle‑ground framework**: wait for a technical confirmation, then take a modest, risk‑adjusted position. |\n\n**Bottom line:** All three agree that the **medium‑term backdrop is bullish**, but the **short‑term picture is ambiguous**. The Safe analyst’s warning flag is the decisive factor for timing.\n\n---\n\n## 3. Why “Hold” (i.e., **wait for confirmation**) is the only defensible choice  \n\n1. **Technical trigger not yet met**  \n   * Price ≈ $245, **still ~3 % below the 10‑day EMA (~$253)**.  \n   * EMA is *tilting down* – historically a precursor to a **few‑week correction** in Apple’s price action.  \n   * Entering now would expose the portfolio to an **estimated 2 %‑3 % immediate downside** before the EMA is retested.\n\n2. **Risk‑adjusted return calculation**  \n   * Expected upside (to $260) ≈ +6 % from today.  \n   * Expected downside (to the EMA‑minus‑1 ATR level ≈ $250) ≈ ‑2 %.  \n   * **Risk‑reward ≈ 3:1**, but only **if the EMA is cleared**; otherwise the downside flips to ~‑4 % (if price falls back to $240).  \n   * Leveraging (2×) would double both sides, pushing potential loss to > ‑8 % in a month – incompatible with a balanced‑risk mandate.\n\n3. **Sentiment volatility**  \n   * The sentiment index (+0.18 weekly average) is **reactive**, not leading.  \n   * The spikes (+0.38, +0.45) are tied to one‑off events (iPhone 17 pre‑orders, services beat).  \n   * A **sentiment‑driven rally can evaporate** within days, adding *behavioral volatility* that the Safe analyst correctly flags.\n\n4. **Earnings & AI upside already priced**  \n   * Forward P/E ≈ 23× reflects the services/AI narrative.  \n   * Any miss on services growth or AI adoption would **compress the multiple** quickly, eroding upside.  \n   * A modest upside premium remains, but only after the short‑term correction is resolved.\n\n5. **Supply‑chain & regulatory risks are not fully baked in**  \n   * Vietnam fab outage is a *symptom* of a broader capacity squeeze; margin compression risk is real.  \n   * EU antitrust decisions could hit services fees **as early as late‑2025**, not just 2026.  \n   * Both risks merit a **tight stop** and a **small position size** – another reason to wait for a clearer risk‑reward picture.\n\n---\n\n## 4. Refined, actionable entry plan (the “conditional hold”)  \n\n| Step | Action | Reason |\n|------|--------|--------|\n| **1️⃣ Wait for technical confirmation** | Price **closes above the 10‑day EMA (~$253)** **and** holds above the Bollinger‑band middle (~$251) for **≥ 2 consecutive sessions**. | Clears the short‑term correction signal identified by the Safe analyst. |\n| **2️⃣ Size the position** | Allocate **5‑7 % of the total portfolio (or 0.5‑1 % of AUM for a large institution)**. | Gives meaningful upside while keeping the portfolio’s volatility in line with a balanced mandate. |\n| **3️⃣ Risk controls** | • Hard stop at **EMA – 1 ATR** ≈ $250.<br>• If stop is hit, exit immediately (caps downside at ≈ ‑2 %). | Protects capital if the EMA resumes a down‑trend. |\n| **4️⃣ Income buffer (optional)** | Sell a **cash‑secured put** at a strike just below the current market (≈ $245‑$250) with a 1‑2‑week expiry. Premium offsets a portion of the stop‑loss risk. | Generates modest income while limiting max loss to the strike‑price differential. |\n| **5️⃣ Optional collar** | Buy a **protective call** at $260‑$265 and keep the put sold at $250. | Caps upside at a realistic target while fully protecting against a drop below $250. |\n| **6️⃣ Ongoing monitoring** | • Sentiment 3‑day MA > +0.10.<br>• No new fab‑outage alerts or TSMC capacity‑usage spikes.<br>• No EU/US regulatory announcements that could alter Services fees. | Ensures we exit or trim the position if any of the risk drivers flare up. |\n| **7️⃣ Exit** | • **Partial profit** at $260 (≈ 6 % gain) – tighten stop to breakeven.<br>• **Full exit** if price breaks below $250 or sentiment turns neutral. | Locks in gains and prevents a larger draw‑down. |\n\n---\n\n## 5. Learning from past mistakes (the “****” lessons)\n\n| Past mistake (generic) | What went wrong | How the current plan fixes it |\n|------------------------|----------------|------------------------------|\n| **Over‑leverage on a bullish thesis** – entered a 2× leveraged position without a clear stop, leading to a 15 % swing loss when the EMA slipped lower. | Ignored short‑term technical warning signs; risk was amplified beyond portfolio tolerance. | **No leverage**; position capped at 5‑7 % with a *hard stop* at EMA – ATR, keeping worst‑case loss ≤ 2 % of the position. |\n| **Relying solely on sentiment spikes** – bought after a +0.45 tweet surge, then sold when the sentiment index fell back to zero, missing the longer‑term uptrend. | Treated sentiment as a leading driver rather than a lagging echo of price. | Use **sentiment as a secondary filter** (3‑day MA > +0.10) *after* the technical trigger; sentiment alone will not dictate entry. |\n| **Under‑estimating regulatory timing** – assumed EU fine would not hit until 2026, but a preliminary decision in Q4 2025 cut services revenue by 6 %, causing a sharp price dip. | Failed to price a realistic “near‑term” regulatory shock. | **Continuous monitoring** of EU/US regulatory news; the stop‑loss and optional collar absorb a 5‑10 % earnings hit without needing to unwind the whole position. |\n| **Taking a large “core‑portfolio” allocation on a single stock** – 20 % exposure caused portfolio volatility to breach risk‑budget limits when Apple’s volatility spiked. | Ignored the **risk‑budget** constraint. | **Size limited to 5‑7 %** of the entire portfolio, preserving the overall volatility budget and keeping the position within a “core‑risk” bucket. |\n\n---\n\n## 6. Final Verdict  \n\n- **Buy now?** Too risky – the price is still below the 10‑day EMA and the EMA is falling.  \n- **Sell now?** Unnecessary – the medium‑term trend is solidly bullish; we are not currently holding a position that needs unwinding.  \n- **Hold (with a conditional entry)?** The only rational choice. It lets us **capture the upside** once the short‑term correction resolves, while **protecting capital** from the downside risks highlighted by the Safe analyst and the lessons we learned from past over‑aggressive moves.\n\n**Action:** Keep the existing exposure (if any) at current levels, **do not add new long exposure today**, and **prepare to execute the conditional entry plan** as soon as the 10‑day EMA‑breakout confirmation materializes. This approach aligns with a balanced risk‑budget, respects both bullish and bearish viewpoints, and integrates the hard‑won lessons from previous mis‑steps.\n\n🎯 **Final trade decision**\n**Recommendation – **_**HOLD (with a conditional entry plan)**_  \n\n---\n\n## 1. What the trader originally wanted to do  \n*(the trader’s stated plan is hidden as “****” in the prompt – we’ll assume the intention was to **add a new long position in Apple (AAPL) now**).*\n\n### Our revised plan  \n‑ Don’t take the position **today**.  \n‑ Enter only after the price clears the short‑term technical barrier (10‑day EMA ≈ $253) and stays above the Bollinger‑band middle (~$251) for at least two consecutive sessions.  \n‑ When that trigger is hit, allocate **5‑7 % of the overall portfolio** (or the equivalent of a single “core‑risk” bucket) and apply the risk‑controls outlined below.\n\n---\n\n## 2. Key arguments from the three analysts  \n\n| Analyst | Strongest Point (relevant to the decision) | Why it matters |\n|--------|--------------------------------------------|----------------|\n| **Risky** | Multi‑month up‑trend (price > 50‑day SMA, 200‑day SMA 10 % below) + bullish sentiment spikes → “buy‑the‑dip” | Shows the **long‑term bias** is bullish, but it bases the entry on today’s price, ignoring the **near‑term EMA breach**. |\n| **Safe** | Price is still **below the 10‑day EMA**, EMA is sloping down, and we sit in the lower third of the Bollinger channel → a **potential short‑term corrective wave** | Signals that a **stop‑loss‑sized pull‑back is likely** if we jump in now; capital preservation becomes the priority. |\n| **Neutral** | Trend is bullish **iff** the 10‑EMA is reclaimed; sentiment spikes are real but fragile; services/AI upside is **moderately priced**, not “free money.” | Provides the **middle‑ground framework**: wait for a technical confirmation, then take a modest, risk‑adjusted position. |\n\n**Bottom line:** All three agree that the **medium‑term backdrop is bullish**, but the **short‑term picture is ambiguous**. The Safe analyst’s warning flag is the decisive factor for timing.\n\n---\n\n## 3. Why “Hold” (i.e., **wait for confirmation**) is the only defensible choice  \n\n1. **Technical trigger not yet met**  \n   * Price ≈ $245, **still ~3 % below the 10‑day EMA (~$253)**.  \n   * EMA is *tilting down* – historically a precursor to a **few‑week correction** in Apple’s price action.  \n   * Entering now would expose the portfolio to an **estimated 2 %‑3 % immediate downside** before the EMA is retested.\n\n2. **Risk‑adjusted return calculation**  \n   * Expected upside (to $260) ≈ +6 % from today.  \n   * Expected downside (to the EMA‑minus‑1 ATR level ≈ $250) ≈ ‑2 %.  \n   * **Risk‑reward ≈ 3:1**, but only **if the EMA is cleared**; otherwise the downside flips to ~‑4 % (if price falls back to $240).  \n   * Leveraging (2×) would double both sides, pushing potential loss to > ‑8 % in a month – incompatible with a balanced‑risk mandate.\n\n3. **Sentiment volatility**  \n   * The sentiment index (+0.18 weekly average) is **reactive**, not leading.  \n   * The spikes (+0.38, +0.45) are tied to one‑off events (iPhone 17 pre‑orders, services beat).  \n   * A **sentiment‑driven rally can evaporate** within days, adding *behavioral volatility* that the Safe analyst correctly flags.\n\n4. **Earnings & AI upside already priced**  \n   * Forward P/E ≈ 23× reflects the services/AI narrative.  \n   * Any miss on services growth or AI adoption would **compress the multiple** quickly, eroding upside.  \n   * A modest upside premium remains, but only after the short‑term correction is resolved.\n\n5. **Supply‑chain & regulatory risks are not fully baked in**  \n   * Vietnam fab outage is a *symptom* of a broader capacity squeeze; margin compression risk is real.  \n   * EU antitrust decisions could hit services fees **as early as late‑2025**, not just 2026.  \n   * Both risks merit a **tight stop** and a **small position size** – another reason to wait for a clearer risk‑reward picture.\n\n---\n\n## 4. Refined, actionable entry plan (the “conditional hold”)  \n\n| Step | Action | Reason |\n|------|--------|--------|\n| **1️⃣ Wait for technical confirmation** | Price **closes above the 10‑day EMA (~$253)** **and** holds above the Bollinger‑band middle (~$251) for **≥ 2 consecutive sessions**. | Clears the short‑term correction signal identified by the Safe analyst. |\n| **2️⃣ Size the position** | Allocate **5‑7 % of the total portfolio (or 0.5‑1 % of AUM for a large institution)**. | Gives meaningful upside while keeping the portfolio’s volatility in line with a balanced mandate. |\n| **3️⃣ Risk controls** | • Hard stop at **EMA – 1 ATR** ≈ $250.<br>• If stop is hit, exit immediately (caps downside at ≈ ‑2 %). | Protects capital if the EMA resumes a down‑trend. |\n| **4️⃣ Income buffer (optional)** | Sell a **cash‑secured put** at a strike just below the current market (≈ $245‑$250) with a 1‑2‑week expiry. Premium offsets a portion of the stop‑loss risk. | Generates modest income while limiting max loss to the strike‑price differential. |\n| **5️⃣ Optional collar** | Buy a **protective call** at $260‑$265 and keep the put sold at $250. | Caps upside at a realistic target while fully protecting against a drop below $250. |\n| **6️⃣ Ongoing monitoring** | • Sentiment 3‑day MA > +0.10.<br>• No new fab‑outage alerts or TSMC capacity‑usage spikes.<br>• No EU/US regulatory announcements that could alter Services fees. | Ensures we exit or trim the position if any of the risk drivers flare up. |\n| **7️⃣ Exit** | • **Partial profit** at $260 (≈ 6 % gain) – tighten stop to breakeven.<br>• **Full exit** if price breaks below $250 or sentiment turns neutral. | Locks in gains and prevents a larger draw‑down. |\n\n---\n\n## 5. Learning from past mistakes (the “****” lessons)\n\n| Past mistake (generic) | What went wrong | How the current plan fixes it |\n|------------------------|----------------|------------------------------|\n| **Over‑leverage on a bullish thesis** – entered a 2× leveraged position without a clear stop, leading to a 15 % swing loss when the EMA slipped lower. | Ignored short‑term technical warning signs; risk was amplified beyond portfolio tolerance. | **No leverage**; position capped at 5‑7 % with a *hard stop* at EMA – ATR, keeping worst‑case loss ≤ 2 % of the position. |\n| **Relying solely on sentiment spikes** – bought after a +0.45 tweet surge, then sold when the sentiment index fell back to zero, missing the longer‑term uptrend. | Treated sentiment as a leading driver rather than a lagging echo of price. | Use **sentiment as a secondary filter** (3‑day MA > +0.10) *after* the technical trigger; sentiment alone will not dictate entry. |\n| **Under‑estimating regulatory timing** – assumed EU fine would not hit until 2026, but a preliminary decision in Q4 2025 cut services revenue by 6 %, causing a sharp price dip. | Failed to price a realistic “near‑term” regulatory shock. | **Continuous monitoring** of EU/US regulatory news; the stop‑loss and optional collar absorb a 5‑10 % earnings hit without needing to unwind the whole position. |\n| **Taking a large “core‑portfolio” allocation on a single stock** – 20 % exposure caused portfolio volatility to breach risk‑budget limits when Apple’s volatility spiked. | Ignored the **risk‑budget** constraint. | **Size limited to 5‑7 %** of the entire portfolio, preserving the overall volatility budget and keeping the position within a “core‑risk” bucket. |\n\n---\n\n## 6. Final Verdict  \n\n- **Buy now?** Too risky – the price is still below the 10‑day EMA and the EMA is falling.  \n- **Sell now?** Unnecessary – the medium‑term trend is solidly bullish; we are not currently holding a position that needs unwinding.  \n- **Hold (with a conditional entry)?** The only rational choice. It lets us **capture the upside** once the short‑term correction resolves, while **protecting capital** from the downside risks highlighted by the Safe analyst and the lessons we learned from past over‑aggressive moves.\n\n**Action:** Keep the existing exposure (if any) at current levels, **do not add new long exposure today**, and **prepare to execute the conditional entry plan** as soon as the 10‑day EMA‑breakout confirmation materializes. This approach aligns with a balanced risk‑budget, respects both bullish and bearish viewpoints, and integrates the hard‑won lessons from previous mis‑steps.\n\n🚦 **Processed trade signal**\nHOLD\n\n✅ **Analysis completed**\n\nStock AAPL on 2025-10-13 analysis completed.\nUsed analysts: market, social, news, fundamentals\n\nIf you need to re-analyze or analyze other stocks, please send a new query.",
                },
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};
